Public administrations are often judged by how quickly they respond to immediate challenges. Yet good governance also depends on the ability to look ahead. In recent years, the concept of strategic foresight has become increasingly important in public policy. For Malta, this approach is reflected in Vision 2050, which places long-term thinking at the centre of national planning.
The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic was a wake-up call for many governments. It showed how rapidly events can disrupt economies, health systems and daily life. At the same time, it highlighted the limits of planning that focuses mainly on short-term horizons. Since then, governments across the world have been paying more attention to how they can better anticipate risks and prepare for uncertainty.
The pandemic, however, was only one of several shocks in recent years. Geopolitical developments have also shown how interconnected global systems have become.
The war in Ukraine, for example, had a direct impact on global grain markets. Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region are among the world’s main exporters of wheat and other grains. When exports were disrupted, the effects were felt across international food markets, particularly in countries that rely heavily on imports.
More recently, tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about fertilizer supplies. Fertilizer production is closely linked to energy and natural gas markets, and several countries in the region play an important role in these supply chains. Any disruption, particularly ahead of the northern hemisphere sowing season, can affect agricultural production months later. Reduced fertilizer availability or higher costs can translate into lower yields and, ultimately, pressure on food supplies.
For countries like Malta, which depend on global trade and supply chains, these developments matter. Food security, energy prices and regional stability are all shaped by events beyond our borders. In the Mediterranean context, pressures linked to conflict or food insecurity can also contribute to migration flows.
This is why governments increasingly see value in strategic foresight.
Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future. Rather, it is about examining trends and exploring different possible futures in order to make better decisions today. It involves looking at developments in areas such as technology, climate, demographics and geopolitics, and considering how they might interact over time.
Importantly, this is a multidisciplinary exercise. Insights from economists, scientists, technologists and social researchers all play a role. Public administration then has the task of bringing these perspectives together and translating them into policy thinking.
In Malta’s case, this approach also has another advantage. Our political landscape is often shaped by a strong bipolar dynamic. Strategic foresight encourages a wider perspective by focusing on long-term national challenges that go beyond electoral cycles. By considering multiple possible futures, it can help build a shared understanding of where the country might be heading and what choices may be required along the way.
Vision 2050 reflects this need for longer-term thinking. It recognizes that the Malta of the coming decades will face challenges and opportunities that may look very different from those of today.
Malta has already taken some initial steps in this direction through initiatives supported by the European Union and collaboration with the OECD. These initiatives have explored how foresight tools and training can be used within the public administration to support policy development. They provide a useful starting point. What matters now is that this work is followed up in a meaningful way so that the experience gained can translate into lasting capability within government.
Strategic foresight is also relevant when it comes to public investment and financial planning. Decisions taken today—whether in infrastructure, energy, digital systems or social policy—often have consequences that extend well beyond a single budget cycle. This is particularly true in the context of European Union funding programs, where multiannual planning already requires governments to think several years ahead. Incorporating foresight into this process can help ensure that investments made today remain relevant under different future scenarios, helping to “future-proof” policies and programs.
Ultimately, strategic foresight is about preparedness. In an increasingly uncertain world, governments cannot afford to think only in terms of the next few years. Long-term visions such as Vision 2050 are most useful when they are supported by a continuous effort to understand emerging trends and possible futures.
For Malta, strengthening this capacity within public administration will be an important part of ensuring that national planning remains realistic, resilient and forward-looking.
